Performance
Our track record, growing one signal at a time.
237 signals won since launch
Decided signals
439
237W · 202L
Win rate
54.0%
Net units
+293.21u
Average profit %
+12.8%
per signal, not fund return
Still tracking
126
Pending
Value Edge Validation
This is the actual test of the value-betting premise — not just generic win/loss stats: if the value% we calculate before posting has real predictive power, higher-edge buckets below should show a better win rate and ROI than lower-edge ones.
Under 3% edge
137 decided signals
Win rate56.2%
77W / 60L
Realized ROI
+72.9%
3-5% edge
137 decided signals
Win rate55.5%
76W / 61L
Realized ROI
+70.2%
5-10% edge
113 decided signals
Win rate49.6%
56W / 57L
Realized ROI
+54.8%
10%+ edge
52 decided signals
Win rate53.8%
28W / 24L
Realized ROI
+67.8%
Cumulative units over time
One point per settled signal, in order. Hover a point for the exact match, date, and result. Illustrative only — assumes +odds × stake on wins and −stake on losses. The shaded band marks every real pullback from the running peak to date, so a losing stretch stays visible even where the overall climb would otherwise make it look flat.
Largest real pullback: -8.38u, from signal #258 to #269 (2026-07-24 – 2026-07-24)
By confidence level
A sanity check — High-confidence calls should win more often than Low-confidence ones.
High72.2%(13W / 5L)
Medium47.0%(31W / 35L)
Low54.4%(193W / 162L)
By market type
Markets with at least 3 decided signals — too few results elsewhere to say anything meaningful yet.
Match Result59.8%(52W / 35L)
Asian Handicap58.6%(65W / 46L)
Over/Under Goals56.3%(80W / 62L)
Double Chance40.4%(40W / 59L)
Month by month
Track record over time, not just the aggregate.
| Month | Decided | Win rate | Net units |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 2026 | 66 | 51.5% | +44.52u |
| July 2026 | 373 | 54.4% | +248.69u |
What-if calculator
Rs.
— staking 1% of that per unit on every signal, fixed — you would haveCard style:
Format:
+Rs. 146,606(+293.2%)
made following 874 settled signals (All Time) — Won signals returned Rs. 247,606, Lost signals cost Rs. 101,000.
Hypothetical and illustrative only — not a guarantee of future results. Fixed staking: each unit is always 1% of your original fund, not a compounding percentage of a growing or shrinking balance. Based on real settled (Won/Lost/Void) signals only, computed from each signal's actual odds and result; Pending signals are excluded since they haven't resolved yet. Past performance does not predict future returns.
Value betting vs. random guessing
The dashed line shows the mathematically expected outcome of picking randomly at the same odds — 50/50, no edge. The gap between it and our actual line is the value-betting edge. Educational only: shown for illustration, not a guarantee of future results.
How are these numbers calculated?
Worked example
With a Rs 10,000 fund, each bet stakes Rs 100 (1% of the fund) — fixed, so it stays Rs 100 whether the fund is growing or shrinking. If Signal A wins at odds 2.0, you gain Rs 100 (you keep your Rs 100 stake plus Rs 100 profit). If Signal B loses, you lose the Rs 100 stake. Add up every real Won and Lost signal this way, and that's the total profit/loss the What-if calculator shows above.
Average profit %
This hero stat looks at each signal on its own, not the whole picture together — it's the average return of a single signal (+100% if odds were 2.0 and it won, −100% if it lost), averaged across every settled signal. It doesn't tell you what actually happened to your money overall — for that, see Net units and the calculator below.
Net units & the What-if calculator
Net units (shown in the hero panel and the monthly table) and the What-if calculator are the same real bottom-line result — the actual outcome of following every Won and Lost signal, staking a fixed 1% of your fund each time (see the worked example above). Net units measures it in units; the calculator measures it in Rupees. 1 unit always equals 1% of your fund, so multiplying Net units by 1% of any starting fund gives you that fund's exact calculator result.
Why the percentages don't match
Average profit % is a per-signal average — it doesn't grow just because there are more signals. Net units (and the calculator's percentage) is a cumulative total that scales with how many signals you've followed. With more wins than losses, following more signals compounds the total even though the average per-signal return stays the same. Both numbers are correct — they just answer different questions.
- Win rate = Won ÷ (Won + Lost).
- Void signals (435 so far) are excluded from every count, percentage, and total on this page — they never had a real win/loss outcome (e.g. a postponed match). Pending signals aren't included until they settle to Won, Lost, or Void.